StanChart: Bangladesh to be richer than India by 2030

Bangladesh to emerge as a powerful Asian economic power, beating India.

Bangladesh
Asian economies set to dominate 7% growth club during 2020s

 

A projection by the Standard Chartered Bank has estimated that Bangladesh will make its mark in Asia as it is expected to be richer than India by 2030.

The economists across the globe are referring to 2020s as the Asian decade. The experts conclude this as the continent dominating an exclusive list of economies expected to sustain growth rates of around 7%.

According to a research note Sunday from Madhur Jha, Standard Chartered’s India-based head of thematic research, and Global Chief Economist David Mann, the per capita income of Bangladesh will rise to $5,734.6 in 2030. Conversely, India’s will edge up to $5,423.4 after growing less than three times.


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Alternatively comparing it with last year, Bangladesh’s per capita income stood at $1,599.8 and India’s $1,913.2. The note further highlights that the economies around the world that are likely to grow the fastest in the 2020s.

“We think seven countries have the potential to be members of this club in the 2020s. Of these, Bangladesh and India hold the most promise.” – the note read.

The threshold for the list is 7 per cent. This is the approximate growth rate with which the economy is expected to double every 10 years.

With Bangladesh and India, who else is in the 7% club?

As per the note, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Philippines, Myanmar, Ethiopia and Ivory Coast.are all expected to meet the benchmark by 2030. Vietnam is showing an encouraging trend by soaring to $10,400 in 2030 from about $2,500 last year.

As Standard Chartered reckons, the South Asian members of the group should be GDP standouts. The reason is that they’ll together account for about one-fifth of the world’s population by 2030.

Here is a pictorial representation of how the 7% club is set to dominate the global economy:

Bangladesh
Source: Standard Chartered, using World Bank, International Monetary Fund, United Nations data

 

Within the 7 per cent club, Bangladesh’s per capita income will be below Vietnam and the Philippines in 2030. Furthermore, it will be ahead of Ivory Coast, Ethiopia and Myanmar – apart from India.

“With the tailwind of demographic dividend, healthy domestic consumption, rising investment, and successful export-oriented industrialisation, we have every confidence that our nation will continue on this high-growth trajectory in the 2020s and establish itself firmly in the 7 per cent club.”

Bangladesh
Source: Standard Chartered Bank

Why is China missing?

China was a notable member of the 7% club for nearly four decades. However, contrary to the past, China is absent this year due to slow down in economic growth. Another reason for China’s absence is a progression towards higher per-capita incomes which makes faster growth rates more difficult to sustain. Standard Chart estimates that World’s second-biggest economy will keep the economic growth pace of 5.5% in the 2020s.

While China steps down the list, Ethiopia and India joined the club during the past decade. The countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh also entered.

“Young labour forces and accelerating structural reforms are likely to help both Bangladesh and India achieve growth well more than 7 per cent in the coming decade.”

In addition to this, the report reveals that the 7% club members tend to have savings and investment rates of at least 20-25% of GDP.

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