What will be the US presidential election’s impact on Pakistan?

If Donald Trump continues to reign, this may go on.

Noam Chomsky once said:

Every United States (US) president comes with a new doctrine that significantly impacts global geopolitics.

And that is nothing but the truth.

Therefore, it is justified to say that the US presidential elections in November can change US-Pak relations – But the question is, would it be a change for the better or worse? This aspect can only be analyzed by looking at the rivals – Joe Biden and President Donald Trump’s history with Pakistan.

President Donald Trump’s History with Pakistan

The election of Donald Trump did not particularly bode well for the US-Pak relationship. Alongside the ‘no more’ mantra, he announced a reduction in bilateral aid to Pakistan. However, after Prime Minister Imran Khan visited Washington in July last year, the two countries’ bilateral relations improved.

The Trump administration resumed Pakistan’s participation in US military training and educational programs, toned down its harsh criticism aimed at Islamabad, and gave Pakistan the diplomatic space to resume its role as a strategic mediator between the US and the Taliban leadership in Afghanistan for a long-term peace accord and regional stability.

If Donald Trump continues to reign, this may go on.

Joe Biden’s History with Pakistan

Biden has historically looked upon Pakistan as a strategic regional ally. During his tenure as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) Chairman, Biden promulgated the Enhanced Partnership Act with Pakistan 2008.

Biden wanted to improve Pakistan’s political and economic situation for regional stability as it sees Pakistan as a valuable and trustful ally in the Afghan problem context. Biden is reported to have said:

Pakistan is fifty times more important than Afghanistan for the US.

On the other hand, Biden does not plan to pull out American forces entirely from Afghanistan, potentially antagonizing the Pak-supported Afghan Taliban. Moreover, Biden’s administration is more inclined to choose a quasi-autonomous arrangement deemed unfavorable by Islamabad.

Further changes for Pakistan after recent White House elections

Under Trump’s administration, Pakistan’s hostile neighbor India has enjoyed diplomatic leverage. Trump Administration openly supported Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ambitions to contain the rising Chinese influence and paid no heed to the unilateral annulment of Article 370, revoking Kashmir’s special autonomy. Donald Trump’s presidency will only intensify the diplomatic romance between the US and India.

If Biden comes to power, it is unlikely that diplomatic relations between Washington and New Delhi will significantly change as India is the only formidable force against Chinese expansionism. However, the Biden administration would strive to improve Indo-Pak relations through dialogue. Biden’s running Vice President Kamala Harris hinted:

The US will probably diplomatically pressurize India to curb its human rights violations in Kashmir.

It is hard to determine who will trump this US presidential election. However, if Biden wins, the Trumpian doctrine will finally come to an end. History suggests that under Biden, Washington-Islamabad diplomatic exchange will flourish, and US’ civil-military assistance to Pakistan will resume. However, the new administration might compel Islamabad to move away from Beijing due to the strained US-China relationship.

Nevertheless, Pakistan’s foreign policy experts should be prepared to undertake all these challenges and embrace the change.

What are your thoughts on this? Please share with us in the comment section below.

    They always follow Establishment policies if they have decided something they will tow them but don,t worry Allah may have much better reward for us

  • With Biden’s win the US will revert to the standard politics of their establishment and diplomatic ways of dealing with the issues. Diplomacy will surely take over the trump rhetoric against China. He wouldn’t pull out of Afghanistan and the peace talks may get stuck. It is then here that he would need Pakistan’s help to persuade the Taliban to accept his altered plans. He and Kamala, both would surely like to see Congress ruling India after the next elections.

  • It will be a test of Pakistan’s foreign policy makers… to tell Americans everything about our relations with China WITHOUT revealing anything. That is the art of foreign policy, that is… to say everything without revealing anything.

  • امریکہ میں کینیڈی کے وقت سے پینٹاگون کی حکومت ہی ہے اور رہے گی پینٹاگون یعنی امریکی اسٹبلشمنٹ

  • No matter who win and who lose..Trump or Biden..US foreign policies will control by Civil and military Establishment as always been..US election campaign never run on foreign policies..it’s all local issues..If any day..US back track towards Israhell policies..then I will say.. that’s the changed…which I don’t expect at all..

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